Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically-assessed naevi and solar lentigines

Source: MDLinx, September 2019

Using clinically-assessed risk factors, researchers developed and validated a model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma. On the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, gender and city of recruitment were kept in each step, unconditional logistic regression with backward selection was used and validated it externally using the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). According to results, the final model comprised the number of naevi ? 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a 6-level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. The strongest risk factor was naevi. This model had excellent discrimination, and clinicians could use it to stratify patients through melanoma danger for preventive intervention targeting.