Successful Melanoma Risk Prediction Model Includes Whole-Body Nevi, Solar Lentigines

Source: Dermatology Advisor, October 2019

A melanoma risk prediction model showed good discrimination between patients with and without melanoma, a study published in the British Journal of Dermatology reports. The prediction model incorporated several candidate predictors, among which whole-body nevi were the strongest risk factor.

The prediction model was developed using data abstracted from the Australian Melanoma Family Study, a population-based case-control study (461 cases; 329 controls). The model was then externally validated in the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases; 513 controls). In both studies, patients with first-primary cutaneous melanoma were frequency matched with controls by age and sex. For all participants, clinical assessment of nevi was conducted, with separate counts for melanocytic nevi and dysplastic nevi. Other candidate predictors included demographic factors, solar lentigines, self-assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history of melanoma, and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. The model was developed using unconditional logistic regression with backward selection. Relative risks and odds per age- and sex-adjusted standard deviation were calculated to compare the predictive strengths of model variables. The ability of the model to discriminate between cases and controls was estimated using area under the curve.

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